dow prediction less than 11,000 end of 2012, page-19

good post nzak:

'markets usually crash when there are 3-5 months continuous drop in confidence'

and when there is a crashes without a 3-5 months continuous drop in confidence, it is because of a catastophic event, such as 9/11.

using economics to 'predict market timing', such as a change from a 'bear to bull' or 'bull to bear' market does not often work. that is why economist are amoung the worst stock pickers.