long term future, page-8

Funny to post a comment on AXM titled "long term future". As each day passes, the probability of coming out of the trading halt diminishes, and the odds of bankruptcy increase. AXM has a working capital deficit which is clear from their filings. All it takes is a single unpaid supplier to issue them with a Statutory Demand notice and the board will have to resign and appoint an administrator. Reality is that AXM shares are worthless.

Capital markets very tough right now. So I don't like odds of AXM raising the sort of cash they need. Have already raised $300m the past few years, and all lost (works out to losses of $1000/oz produced - imagine if the gold price had stayed flat!). Right now I bet mgmt is going around telling brokers they have been undercapitalized, and if they just got enough cash to do it right, then profits would be huge. Fact is they have had plenty of cold hard cash to invest here the past few years, and right now suckers are in very short supply.

Wiluna is a good story - existing mill, large resource, multiples ore-bodies, long production history. Expect AXM to fall over soon, and the mine will get a new owner and a new life after a year-long hiatus.