Can someone direct me to an authoritative analysis of what the likely outcome of a Greek default would be? There seems to be ample commentary on why a default is inevitable but I have yet to find a considered discussion of what will happen when it does or how it would play out. For example:
Would we wake one morning to an announcement that Greece had returned to the drachma? What would conditions in Greece be like over the next several years (decades?). Have those people with money in Greece already moved it out? Has there been a movement of human capital out? Does Greece have the potential to produce much that the world would want to buy at any price?
Which institutions have exposure to Greek debt - both direct and through derivatives? What are the implications for them? Will credit markets freeze up?
I would have thought these questions more relevant than continually explaining why Greece will default.
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