I am hoping you are right and it is my belief to.
I think with the promise of more than doubling its production and improvements to reserves the share price should continue its upward trend.
The nice thing is we have some target dates which we can measure the progress. September we should be seeing the first gold pour. Jan 2013 we should get the first full quarter results for Garden Well production. Before June 2013 we should see the first dividend (my guess), which will be very interesting.
In regards to the dividend by Jun 2013 we should be seeing 90koz from Moolart and 90koz from Garden Well for a total of 180koz. Assume approx $1000/oz profit we get $180m . Subtract $50m debt and $10m Exploration and we get $120m. If they were to pay all of this as dividend we would be looking at $0.27 / share dividend which at today's price would be about 6.6% return. At my target price of $5.50 it would be a 5% return plus there is the possibility it may be fully franked ...
- All of this is my opinion and a lot of guess work. Of course they may hold back some or all of the dividend for future expansion. Also my guess on outstanding debt may be wrong as I am assuming they are using existing cash flow to pay for a lot of the capital expenses.
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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