To answer your last question first "what if no one wants to buy BMG's JV interest" - I take a great deal of comfort that Hillam (principal shareholder of BMG) and Ample Source have been spending significant time and cost fighting over control of BMG whose main asset is the Hawsons JV. I would be extremely surprised if Ample Source was not willing to step into BMG's shoes given they were willing to pay $105M for half of BMG before there was a confirmed resource (source is court doc's, see my past post for link).
Re your "simple calculation", I think you are over looking the value of the Hawsons project which was an NPV of $3.2 billion. Therefore, $13 million for a 40% interest in a $3.2 billion project seems to me like favourable terms.
Last up, 15th May is the date by which BMG must pay $25M to CAP and agree to fund bankable feasability study. If they do not do this, then it triggers a clause in the JV that will allow some one else (which may be CAP, Ample Source or some one else) to buy BMG's interest. Importantly, if the offer to buy the interest is at least equal to what BMG contributed ($13M) then BMG must sell its interest.
If BMG has a liquidator appointed prior to 15 May, then some one (being Hillam, Ample Source, CAP or other) may buy BMG's JV interest from the liquidator and step into BMG's shoes and continue to fund the JV agreement.
Therefore, we are effectively in a holding pattern until either the liquidator is appointed to BMG (which will be around 19 March unless there is an appeal) or 15 May. Either way, there is light at the end of the tunnel.
CAP Price at posting:
38.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held