which is more likely?, page-10

afternoon all, hi cw.

When anyone talks about risk - it is always wise to ask what they mean by risk.

Why I asked stephoid is because he/she may be thinking quite differently to either me or anyone else here.

simple case in point - is someone taking a risk by jumping out of an aeroplane at 10000 feet whilst flying over some rocky mountains?


A silly little question - but you actually get two pole opposite answers depending on who you ask.

Some say that is very risky because it is dangerous - so yes is their answer.

Others - including myself say that there is almost zero risk there.

Why? Because some of us think that when something is a foregone conclusion - there is in fact no risk at all - because the results are clear and obvious.
Only when the outcomes are unknown is there risk - and the more in doubt the outcome the more risk.

So if one were to jump out of an aeroplane just above stall speed whilst flying over thick loose dry hay - is that risky?

In my book yes - because the outcome is way less clear - in the rockies - 100% - you are going to die.
In the hay fall - you might be ok, or you might be injured or you might even die - the outcome is far from clear - hence it is risky.

The reason why knowing if something is risky (uncertain) is important is that if you know the 'risk' then you can formulate a plan - in the case of the hay - you might think about how you would land or how you might be rescued if injured. Whereas if you were going to land on rocks from 10,000 feet - you might as well kiss your bum goodbye and begin formulating a plan to have as much fun as possible in your remaining time - spend everything and don't worry about the credit card - there is no chance you will ever pay.

I will wait for our friends definition and observations. Many different points of view are instructive - not only for us as a group but also for the individual.

god knows how many times I have been 'educated' in these discussions - what I have found for some strange reason since I turned about 50-55 is that several firm beliefs I have had since as long as I can remember were actually wrong.
God knows what I was doing for the previous 30 years or so - but it sure wasn't questioning everything.

So, I am open to listen. I may be argumentative and I sometimes may be aggressive - but I do try to listen - but I often demand qualification - as do others of me.

What I do notice with fml is that there is often discussion on the 'risk' of being in fml - far more discussion on that than the discussion on the 'risk' of being out if something big breaks.

I am afraid I find risk amazing - why the hell the world runs to the US dollar befuddles me - unless the entire planet knows that the US cannot default because they can just pull dollars out of thin air to pay their bills - fair enough - but doesn't that mean that your investment is in great danger of being devalued? - Is that not a clear and obvious risk?

It's a funny idea all this thing about risk.

The one biggest risk I see with fml ------------ TI smells massive - and with a solid engine room driving it - and at a market cap of $200 ish -------- hmmmmm. Now that's a risk.

have a great night

Pinto