estimate a small loss for the half year, page-10

GPASAS

I had a closer look at the profit guidance.
Based on what the board are saying the electrical business has to go backwards from last year's second half ie the current momentum disappears. So if we do a simple comparrison using the electrical busness only;

2011 2012
Half 1 $ 7,483 $11,437
Half 2 $ 8,492 $ 7,370

Full Year $15,975 $18,807 (this was the total business result including interest from vendor loan and $2m of insurance)

So to achieve the same result as last year, ignoring the TJM business the electrical business must deliever $7,370 for teh second half which is 13.2% lower than the prior year and 35.6% lower than the first half.

My view is that the board is being excessively conservative or they are lining up for a low ball offer to take over the business. Obviously something is in the wings with the announcement today on the TJN settlement!

Dont be fooled, the business is performing much better than the board has indicated.