how to hug the line, page-8

morning,

"......... that the problem is that they do not want to invest in anything at all, as shown by their preference for a form of fiat currency called the USD."


I would have to agree with that. The problem they have though is that by staying in US$ - they are in fact investing in it.

What will happen in this case if the US$ continues to lose it's purchase power? And as long as there is some inflation then they MUST be losing money at the deposit rates they have at the moment.

Hmmmm - that would mean that those investors would indeed lose a lot of their wealth - and if inflation kicks up a bit - they will lose it 'rapidly'.

Well if they were smart enough to get wealth in the first place you would think that they wouldn't let it go so easily - even if they are frozen in fear like it seems at the moment.

So what will they do? Hang on until they have noting left except bbq firelighters? or will they invest their US$ into something else?

The chinese are doing that at least to a reasonable degree - getting rid of the US and buying assets everywhere - not everything but a lot of things - coal, iron, gold etc etc.

What are the yanks going to do? - similar? or just sit and wait to be hit by the train?

Something has to break and when it does, watch out. Personally I think we (fml) will be right in the firing line at some stage - Stone chasing cre proved that a bit - but I think that was only a pebble in the ocean - I think this m&a cycle when it begins (it already has I suspect) - will be massive. How can it not be? We are number 4 or 5 producer in Australia - growing and making money - not much yet but money just the same.
How long can it be before you say Focus to someone and they stop saying "What's focus?
I notice not everyone knows what NCM does - but at least they know the name ---------- how big do we have to get before the name is known?


Commodities are worth too much at present and there are too many distressed assets around - from bad management or whatever - all too good a mix of things to not have a massive m & a cycle.
With so much cash being generated and sitting on balance sheets - this is going to be a hell of a bun fight.

And when it starts - all that wealth sitting on the sidelines will develop a brand new fear - fear of missing out - and they will chase it up and as the car goes faster, they will run harder to catch it - if we (fml) still exist by then, we will probably be one of the more juicy cars to chase - interesting year.
Of course madam may have changed gear again by then and grown some serious teeth - she may indeed be a very hungry girl - hard to tell - personally I would look to what DT wants to do - if he wants to roll into a nice personal dividend for his super (and I think he and many of the board and execs do) then, the girl may settle for getting to a nice healthy weight and then just kick back for a while - that would be my personal hope - if she flies, I don't really want to have to sell out of her to capitalise - I would like to get enough out of her in divvies and have a grand in the ground asset base - and of course if my dream comes true with TI - that could well be a hell of an asset base. Mouthwatering in fact.

have a great day

Pinto