shrewd crude report valuation, page-21

tongaface,

In a closed market situation I would agree with you about the oversupply and therefore a reduction in price.

The situation is different now in relation to gas and energy supplies in the world. Energy is in short supply.
Some speakers were highlighting the price of $18 internationally for LNG
If the international price for gas is $14+ there will not be many suppliers selling gas domestically for $8 and below.

The supply curve that you talk about for Shale is different to that of a normal gas field.

In shale the initial flow rate declines rapidly but once it stabilizes the decline rate is much much slower than traditional wells and lasts for exceptionally long time.