Unfortunately Haz I'm not so sure and trust me I've been in NGF since 2008 so would love 30c+ as my breakeven is 25c.
Most of the gold takeovers are priced at 25-35% over 30-day VWAP so for NGF that going to be something like 23-25c if its a takeover offer - I'd think more like 25c given we haven't traded that high since last year some time but recently been to low-20's.
Another potential scenario here is a GDO type transaction where Zijin (I assume) make an offer for majority control with a view to launching a bid on another undervalued goldie to get more critical mass. I could see something like Zijin offers 25c for all NGF shares conditional only on getting to 51% and hoping to get say 75%. Then issue more shares to themselves at 20-25c to inject new money and/or shore up there 75% if they were going to fall short. Then launch a bid/merger for someone else of similar size and undervaluation - possibly even someone like FML even though they are a little larger a Zijin cash injection to get control of NGF could give them the muscle to launch on a slightly bigger target....
Maybe I'm just dreaming out loud here but the mid-tier gold sector needs some consolidation because the real action is when the large players go hunting for companies with 300-500oz annual production and 5m+ oz in reserve/resource etc. Thats when it gets interesting and lots of smaller Aussie goldies need to get bigger to get on the radar screens.
NGF Price at posting:
18.5¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
