outlook for zinc; quote by scott lowe

Zinc miners are betting a long-running global supply glut of the metal used in steel making will turn into a deficit over the next five years as old mines run dry, sparking massive investment in new projects.
From Australia to Africa to the European Union, mining firms are laying the groundwork to dig up an additional 1 million tonnes-plus of zinc annually, nearly one-tenth of world consumption and more than is parked in London Metal Exchange warehouses already overflowing with unsold metal.
Zinc could be in deficit by 2017 if not earlier, experts say, as consumption rises in China, steel manufacturing picks up in Europe and North America and - most importantly - several super deposits run dry, forcing buyers to dip into swollen producer and exchange stockpiles.
With zinc supplies heading for a deficit, Goldman Sachs expects zinc prices to gain around 15 percent by mid-2014.
"While prices are not very good at the moment in zinc, that tightness of supply going forward will drive much better prices," said Andrew Michelmore, chief executive of Minmetals Resources, whose Century mine in Australia is the world's third largest.
LME zinc prices, currently trading at $2,024 per tonne, are off more than 20 percent from the peaks of 2011 and the sector is facing a sixth straight year of surplus.
"The turnaround is more about a shortfall in supply than it is about the growth in demand that is occurring," said Scott Lowe, managing director of Blackthorn Resources, which is digging a new zinc mine in Burkina Faso.
"We think we're on the cusp of a good thing," added Lowe, citing analysts as viewing the zinc market heading for the tightest supply conditions in 30 years.