I take your point and I agree - however not trying to "divine" any predictive information - as only counting Bakken wells with reported production. Certainly there was/is production from other formations. And it could be that surrounding townships are drilling 100% success rate or 0% success rate into Bakken formation.
The purpose of the exercise, which I think may have been obtuse in the way I presented it, is to examine more closely the info that SSN provides - such as slide 20 (Phase 1 and 2 Leases) from the Feb Investor preso (IPAA) that has been oft published.
Hence the raw number of producing Bakken wells overlay and the beginning of decline analysis of sourrounds.
Most important is the decline curve analysis. I probably spend more time (too much??) on this stuff than most but it provides for me useful insight.
From observed nearby models a production pattern is clearly emerging - enough to create a working model.
From that model I can at least now determine the expected IRR using comparative numbers that other producers in the region use to examine the economics.
Purely from the SSN point of view, the IP/30/90 day production results wont be enough to determine curve - I think really do need to see up to 180 days of production.
I am testing my numbers with another highly respected HC poster (and not just in this forum). When I'm sure we've got the analysis roughly right we'll share the outcomes.
One thing that significantly improves the economics is MT's lower taxes (and hopefully stays that way).
None of this will help those interested in the stock price in the short term - but that's not how I evaluate investments.
SSN Price at posting:
11.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
