Mezza, if you read back through the operations updates late last year on Defender (late November from memory) you'll find it also didnt produce any reservoir (hydrocarbon) fluids initially either. Fracked wells begin producing predominantly or sometimes 100% (depending on well and completion configuration) recovered frac fluids before gradually drawing an increasing cut of oil from the target reservoir.
So the fact that Gretel has no oil shows yet is neither positive or negative - it just reflects the fact that we are getting a progress report and progress to date as at the time of the report is that Gretel is only flowing back frac fluid so far.
As for Aus 2, the flow rate was 70 bopd because the well was partially blocked. Sure thats not positive (i.e. the well hasnt been completed trouble-free), but is the rate only 70 bopd because there's no oil there or is it because the well was partially blocked. Unfortunately we have to wait to find out the answer, but at this time the balance of probability is actually that the answer is the latter (reference early progress reports on Aus 2 on hydrocarbon saturation/presence in the target layer along the entire length of the horizontal) not the former.
Imo its not pertinent to interpret such results either optimistically or pessimistically, but in the context of an understanding of the process and all the progress results to date - i.e. based on all the facts. In that context, its just as premature to call the outlook grim as it is to say its all positive.
I will be optimistic though and hope that I can watch you eat your hat on youtube if the results are positive. i suspect if they are positive you'll probably have fun eating that hat...:-)
Cheers, Sharks.
SSN Price at posting:
11.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
