So here we are, at the beginning of what should be a huge week for PLV. This week we should have confirmation of tranche 4 funding and hopefully funding required for Cockatoo as well.
On June 6th 2011, PLV SP collapsed from 78c to 32c (or thereabouts in the following days) when the now infamous PFS was released. The trigger for the collapse was the 'shock horror' of a $700million CAPEX required by PLV to get the Irvine project off the ground. To this point in time all and sundry were wetting themselves over a 2009 preliminary report suggesting a $350million CAPEX. Despite the fact of that same PFS listed a $3.80 NPV, add the well documented cost blowouts due to the mining boom, the market still thought the money was too great, wouldnt arrive, didnt buy the story and sold it off.
This was more than just mums and dads getting out given how tightly held PLV is, on June 23rd at the EGM Tony ran through some of the facts, and walked us through the bigger picture not mentioned in the PFS. ie. of the $700million CAPEX, some $437million was the cost of the processing plant required for Irvine (thats > 50% of CAPEX). This was costed based on this plant being sourced and built in Australia... the problem is no one in Australia actually builds such a plant and nor will they. Hence it has to come from China and a saving of $100million+ was floated here on rough figures (Timeone are sourcing this for PLV).
Tony also mentioned a large holder who communicated to him he was using the PFS as his trigger to get out for tax reasons prior to the June 30th EOFY. It was this large holder that effectively crushed the SP (this is rarely acknowledged).
At the time of the PFS Cockatoo was in the ball park but not a done deal, we now have Cockatoo and providing that Cockatoo is fully funded as well it is effectively our 'steaknives'. A freebie with all its infrastructure and IO assets (less enviro bond).
Since June 6th we long term holders have all been in the doghouse, its been a bleak 10 months but we can see the light at the end of the tunnel now. My point is if this week we confirm;
- funding for Irvine - funding for Cockatoo (all with approx 300million shares)
on top of updated PFS details - end to end solution (with offtake) - reduced capex - reduced opex - resource upgrade - Cockatoo ore (DSO + low grade + bucketloads of deep underground DSO)
How long will it take to get us back to the pre PFS level of 80c if all the reasons for the aforementioned SP collapse have been rectified, and then some?
Its only a question of time.
Here's hoping for an early announcement.
Cheers SuperTim
PLV Price at posting:
21.2¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
