reserves report - what to expect...?

The time has come for the updated reserves report from Nash dome.

The (MAD) question is, what are we expecting...?

To have a good discussion about this point, I'll provide some colour. When MAD listed, it had the following on Blue Ridge:
- 7.8m 1P
- 25.6m 2P

It now (after 2 subsequent upgrades) has:
- 28.1m 1P
- 72.8m 2P

We know there is oil in Nash as the well they have drilled has oil with good flow rates. The question is what would the market be happy with & (more importantly) what would the market be VERY happy with.

On current Mkt Cap (470m) we have a value of:
- $16.73 per 1P
- $6.46 per 2P

If this Nash dome report (remember, it's only the 1st cut, Blue Ridge has been upgraded twice since the IPO as they have drilled more & more of the land) contains somewhere in the vicinity of what Blue Ridge originally was estimated to have (note this is VERY OPTIMISTIC & IMO WOULD BE AN UPSIDE SURPRISE - but we need to start the discussion somewhere) the (total) new reserves would be:
- 35.9m 1P (7.8m for Nash)
- 98.4m 2P (28.1m for Nash)

These upgraded reserves would mean we are now trading at a valuation of:
- $13.10 per 1P
- $4.78 per 2P

For those who subscribe to Motley Fool, he was suggesting that $7.50 per 2P is fair value for the stock with current production profile & current information. Hence he is currently advising people start locking in some profits at $1.30 ($7.50 x 72.8m = $546m Mkt Cap = c. 1.35 per share)

Using that figure as a benchmark, now that we have reserves of 98.4m 2P, we can say that fair value would be around....

$7.50 x 98.4m = $738m Mkt Cap = c. 1.84

All with Boiling Dome reserves to come in another 6 weeks...

This is all IMO & I am by no means an O&G expert. Commentary, discussion & anticipated reserves are welcome from all users!

Go MADers!!