Picking bottoms is always hard (falling daggers, smelly fingers, etc) but at these prices I'm happy to accumulate and not worry too much about short-term movements in case it goes south any further.
The fact is that there is such a compelling value per share situation at these prices that on one hand frustrates me as an existing shareholder but on the other delights me to be able to accumulate more shares at these bargain basement prices.
Regardless, I'm with most of you guys regarding the opinion that management are hopeless for having let the share price slip so far. I guess PB has received the message that he has become the boy that cried wolf too many times and is now keeping his mouth shut until things are certain.
It's been a while since any news has come out (which is unusual for LNC but probably for the reason mentioned above). It's just a matter of time before there will be some announcement to nudge the price soon.
Maybe there are devious reasons for the price drop (maniupaltion ahead of a "corner-stone" investment at a low price by an institutional investor, i.e. the "Chinese" - this exact thing happened with Paladin earlier this year) In any case, it's more likely that the price will go higher than lower in the medium term because this is now indisputably undervalued so I'm increasing my position.
To quote a post by Enmat on 30/04:
"Taking a peesimistic view on the Teresa coal sale - they should get at least $250m for it (even if it takes another couple of years to flog it).
And then take the present value of the Adani royalty stream which a ridiculously conservative valuation is around $350m.
Current market cap is $600m which means at the current share price you are buying the Teresa coal asset and the Adani royalty stream and the rest of the business comes for absolute FREE!! Think of all those other coal and oil assets not to mention all the UCG-GTL technology they have developed - it is all free at the moment.
Long term - this company offers fantastic value at current share prices. Short term - who cares what happens as it is only ever going to be a 50-50 gamble taking short term punts on the stock market."
I couldn't have summarised the fundamental value of this company any better. Maybe those with technical analysis skills will pick a better time to invest, but in the medium term this stock will improve on the current price.
LNC Price at posting:
$1.05 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
