СЕЕ Broker Data, page-126

I have been going through recent CTT financials and have observed some trends.

Cettire's gross profit is around 18-24% of Revenue. So on a 1B$ revenue scale, Cettire makes around $185m gross profit on a minimum.

Merchant fees + admin fees + employee benefits seems pretty fixated at around $60m per year.
Advertisement and marketing is where Cettire is spending too much since 2024. $75m in 2024, $31m in 1H25.

Due to troubling waters, I assume they will restrain from spending more on advertisement. So in my opinion $40m will go towards marketing on a yearly basis starting FY26 (pure assumption). That brings total expenses to $100m.

Assuming tariffs have significant impact on CTT, and revenue down by $300m to $700m will result in $40m EBIDTA (base case).
Revenue of $800m gives $60m EBIDTA (realistic case)
Revenue of $1B gives $90m EBIDTA (best case).

At current MC I think CTT is a safe bet for future based on above metrics. I have bought in today at 44.5c, lets see how this unfolds.
My assumptions rely on management doing the right thing and cut down expenses to make the company work. Same thing happened with Zip & Sezzle, while revenue was steadily increasing, they dropped all the way to 26c & 11c respectively. They are now at trading at 10X their lows in just a matter of year and half. I strongly believe CTT is now in the same boat and will rebound.

Companies with strong revenues always survive these downtrends because they can cut corners to increase profitability over growth.

Pure speculation and personal analysis. I can be completely wrong, DYOR.