Hi Veritas This announcement is definitely not lost on me mate.
With the listed market being as much about perception/market sentiment, than it is about actual performance - the need to update the market may not have been the ideal choice internally for the following reasons:
1. Their previous announcement was a 'negative catch-all' with no reliance or commitment to provide an additional forecast prior to full year results - hence the huge impact to share price in April. In my view CSX management would only have provided an additional announcement if it was 'poorer' than Q3 in the spirit of full transparency. If the results were comparative or a slight/uncertain increase then no need to discuss with the market; 2. Q4 potentially began with considerable signs of momentum - purchase orders, deliveries, invoicing etc. There would have still been unknowns with regard to delivery dates and when these orders would be realised due to shipping and container shortages etc. etc. Also I would suggest each week that has gone by would have had greater orders due to the momentum shift of vaccine roll-outs now slackening off. But whether these PO's could be invoiced in FY21 may have been uncertain - so why update the market for potential upside unless guaranteed these would be included in FY21 results
I see these uncertainties as the potential major reasons for not being updated, If they had updated us on the potential orders and these orders not being realised this financial year we would have accused them of incompetence. The market is vicious. Better to keep silent.
I expect flat results in Q4 with maybe a slight increase on Q3 - with clear momentum being generated into FY22.
CSX Price at posting:
$1.61 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)