Thanks for the summary
@Fingers xed, much appreciated.
Regarding the DFS - can we please pause for a second and have a minute of silence for the hopes and dreams of all those rampers that said that it will be out in "a few weeks" and that it was "being finalised" after the announcement of the new processing site? Oh wait... the 'downrampers' are correct again? DFS will be out end of year/mid 2025.
EU does not and will not accept 65% of tailings not have a remediation/disposal management plan. The roadbase idea is just ridiculous as the processing chems left in the tailings are hazardous and will leach into the surface groundwater, this is about as silly of a suggestion as possible. They need to get smart really fast on this one.
Czech Rep will be hesitant to create new overburden/tailings ponds and piles similar to coal industry as Cinovec project tries to differentiate itself away from that industry as a 'green mining' operator.
Slow, slow, slow - that is the current pace of the EU legislation implementation and thus the pace of development of the Cinovec Project. Logical? Yes. Conducive to SP rise to realise value for the SHs? No.
Overall, whilst everyone is beaming with enthusiasm, I remain very cautious, the takeover from CEZ is imminent upon DFS release.
There is no reason for the SP to be driven up by EMH, it materially increases the takeover cost for CEZ. CEZ will fight with all of their $17B MC weight/might to prevent the SP from rising, LTHs have not seen anything yet.
This is not going to be a popular prediction/sentiment:I expect the SP to keep dropping over the next 6-8 months well beyond the ATL. With the CEZ and the "independent valuator" coming as the saviours to the investors aid with the proposal/valuation somewhere in the .800 range which at that time will be ~say 350% increase to the VWAP. CEZ and Geomet will be high-fiving as they get a bargain and whomever from the retail investors are bold to keep averaging down will turn some profit. EBRD will get its money back and be thanked for their work and will setup funding for CEZ/Geomet in the new entity structure.
Happy to be wrong but most of my bearish predictions have been plenty accurate, so let's see what happens in the near term. I will continue averaging up/down to track the SP over the next year. EMH is not needed past FID, CEZ/Geomet takeover is the only viable outcome from this.
(20min delay)