First off, it's great to see some proper discussion on this stock!
To me, you would have to think there is place for both TA and FA. They go hand in hand.
Padhai, in response to your post:
1/ Based on the latest operational data, the recent pax numbers indicate that even though capacity is down, revenue is up (/seat km). This is good and at this stage, will not certainly show a loss. One of the biggest expenses to come from the airline lately is marketing for business class and the new branding. I think this will be more than normal and could have an adverse affect on the bottom line but that would be temporary and a necessary evil.
2/ VBA has well and truly moved away from the LCC model. While it still caters for it, the business branches should help to weather storms and tumultuous times as it's well and truly an established Australian airline now and needs to cater for all and go for a some more of Qantas' market share.
3/ All airlines are constantly putting up airfares for different reasons, I'm not exactly sure what reason you're refering but Virgin can't afford to be putting up airfares for no reason and without others (mainly Qantas) following suit (or leading the way).
4/ As said, TA is difficult at this time, but cannot be discounted entirely. Stochs, MACD, etc, are all indicating this COULD be the bottom and VBA was very oversold before the "crash". What TAers would be looking for, is a confirmation in one direction from where we are. You would be just as guilty as "bottom pickers" with this stock to go short for no real reason without a direction being evident. And I think 0.225 would be called support, not resistance.
I believe that we're at the mercy of the global market and it is the DOW that will have the biggest influence on VBA's SP. However, based on current TA exclusive of the DOW, a direction needs to be established before investing either way.
A saying I remember:
How do you make a small fortune out of aviation?
Start with a large fortune!
Best regards
VBA Price at posting:
23.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
