I agree with these numbers Value4983843, but for one matter - which is the loan SHE made to Proton Technologies.
Note that the starting cash balance at 31/3/2023 you highlight above has been impacted by the initial loan advance of $400k as per the quarterly 4C report, but you haven't considered the asset for the loan receivable as a liquid asset. So you are understating the liquid assets backing by a slight amount of $400k. Note I expect about 100k of that to have already been repaid by end of this quarter. I can understand if you haven't included this because it has not yet been reported officially by the company.
Just speculating here but I suspect SHE has opted for another $500k advance for the remaining wells. That would also reduce pure cash by that amount, but also form part of the loan receivables (liquid short term asset).
On my numbers I calculate a liquid asset backing of 18.6cps, and a pure cash backing of 16.5cps
I can appreciate the tiresome finesse needed for such seemingly immaterial figures, however it's worth flagging to highlight the very fast return on investment on the Proton loans as well as impact on actual cash balances, regardless of size. I can see this potentially progressing into larger loans on many other wells, which I understand Proton has flagged as suitable in their own reports.
Given the extreme turbulence in broader markets (by which oil prices are heavily driven), regardless of oil supply fundamentals it seems to me best SHE continue to take a steadied approach to any material investments over the short term. Personally I like the Proton loan arrangement as it guarantees a ROI with oil prices only impacting the payback period which is rather generous even at these lower oil prices, rather than the ROI itself.
I am aware of the strategy taken by many ASX peers, which has seen heavily reinvestment of 2022 profits driven by the oil price surge that has gone back into marginal or relatively high cost production in 2023. This is going to be a disaster if oil prices fall further from here due to recession worries.
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