SHE 0.00% 0.7¢ stonehorse energy limited

0.5c per share dividend, page-44

  1. 2,275 Posts.
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    NIZ, A very important question, what is the real intrinsic Value of SHE devoid of the vicissitudes of Mr Market.

    ..

    SHE GICS category are:

    • GICS Industry group is 'Energy',
    • SHE GIC Industry is' Energy Equipment and services'.
    • SHE Gics Sub Industry is : 'Oil and Gas'

    .

    SHE is half acting as a service provider where their service is providing credit in exchange for a share of the profit as well as a producer.

    This is really quite a unique business model in Australia and maybe elsewhere, so when credit lines dries up (which it is doing it by virtue of increased interest rates etc) then SHE can provide a service to small oil companies where they can drill for oil in exchange for a share of the proceeds. This reduces SHE risks as they can select which companies they will do a joint venture with .

    .

    There are only 5 companies in Australia that fall into the same GICS category as SHE.

    .

    Each of these companies have a Profit before Tax normalised (PBTN) divided by the EV(enterprise value ).

    If you take the mean of these 5 it gives a reults of 0.28.

    .
    But SHE is PBTN/EV is 2.452 ...almost 10 times as strong, to bring it into line with the mean SHE market cap would have to increase or their cash reserves would have to decrease or the PBTN decrease..

    .
    Increasing the Market cap would so that it matches the mean would increase it by 2.452/0.28 or 8.75 or 87 million market cap.

    If you apply the same logic to other stats such as NPAT, then the mean NPAT for other companies in same sector is 0.13 where as SHE NPAT/EV is 1.513 . So this time the ratio for NPAT is 1.513/.13 times higher by 11.3 times, giving larger market cap.

    .

    You could argue that SHE Cash backing is huge distortion and perhaps use Market cap instead of EV but again you will see SHE is under-priced by many multiples.
    .
    We can do this if needed.

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    OR one could argue that GICS assigned to SHE is wrong and you might get a different answer.
    .

    Simply wall street used a discounted model based on its passed performance and current fundamentals and came up with a Share price of 0.55 leading to a market cap of over 300 million.

    .

    There is a lot more analysis that can be done.. giving different answers. But one thing they all agree upon is that SHE is severely undervalued several fold. I find it highly unlikely that all the different analysis are wrong.


    I think using the discounted cash flow model on accumulated future cash flows discounted would give the larger market cap which is what Simply wall street have done giving a share price of .55. But this is dependent on SHE finding other high impact wells to partial finance.
    Otherwise it might well be lots of smaller plays( lower risk) but lower returns as well.. but still very strong compared to its current Market cap.

 
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