0.5c per share dividend, page-82

Calculation of Stonehorse energy (SHE) Fundamentals growth over the last few years.

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Thought i would share some of my own research
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In the company announcements half yearly results and annual report financial we find

Revenue, Gross Profit, Profit Before Tax Normalized, Cost Of Goods andOperating Expenses.

If we enter these into a spread sheet and plot them we get a graph.

We now use excel to fit an exponential trend and Linear trend to the data and display the equations we get for each fundamentals, revenue ,Gross profit etc:
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Definitions:

• Growth per year:The rate of Historic growth of the fundamentals per year in percent.

• R1: where R1 indicates how good a fit the graph is toexponential growth trend of linear line.

• Beta: From R1 we can calculate Beta ,which is the chance of the graph data accidentally fitting a straight line or exponential curve. It’s a measure of a false positive, 100% means that we can’t assign any significance to the trend. The closer Beta is to 0 the smaller the chance of a graph data fitting a trend being a falsepositive

Below I have copied over the fundamental trend parameters into two tables below.

Exponential fit to historical fundamentals
	Growth per Year	R1	Beta
Revenue	2316.8%	0.851	0.0036
Costs of Goods	10.8%	0.147	0.7063
Operating Expenses	24.4%	0.351	0.3938

Revenue:We can say that the best fit exponential growth for Revenue is over 2300%,
R1 is .851 so near 1 so revenue fits a exponential curve reasonable well and the chances of a curve fitting a exponential curve as good as revenue did is 0.0036..i.e. not likely to happen by accident.
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Costs of Goods are increasing exponential as well but not as fast Revenue. this means revenue and Cost of goods with operating expenses scale very well. Beta is very high at .07 so probably a false positive trend. so ignore exponential COGS trend
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Operating Expenses have a high Beta so not a good fit so not reliable.


For Linear Fit

	Growthper Year	R1	Beta
Revenue	28.9%	0.843	0.0043
Gross Profit	32.9%	0.848	0.0079
Profit before Tax normalized	39.6%	0.877	0.0043
Net Cash	28.3%	0.932	0.0008
Cost of Goods sold	73.7%	0.323	0.3967
Operating Expenses normalized	-12.9%	0.296	0.4773
Net Profit After Tax	42.0%	0.808	0.0084

Revenue: 29%..but exponential fit of 2316% has a lower beta ..so probably exponential curve fits better
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Gross profit : has increased at almost 33% a year with a high R1.and low Beta
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Profit Before Tax Normalized: Has Linearly grown at 39% with a low Beta so only 0.43% chance of this being a false positive.
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Net Cash has on been increasing 28.3% on average over the last few years ,Beta is very very low here so probably reliable..SHE keeps accumulating cash historically.
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Costs of Goods Sold : Beta to high ..so ignore
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Operating Expenses Normalized has high Betta of 0.47 ..so their is a 47% chance of this being a false positive.
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Net Profit after Tax: 42% historic linear growth.. and only 0.84% chance of this being a good fit by random chance(false positive)


She is probably below fair value, because SHE investment in wells is lumpy and thus their are extended periods between new wells until she grows larger to have more frequent investments.

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Do not take this as financial advice,
past performance is not indicative of future performance
Do your own research.