04/04 Week, page-192

Despite mid term years are choppy SPX is already -6.5% for the year. Average soft year (<5%) is 1.2% so theoretically has 7-8% upside from current levels.

Seen reports money flowing out of equities and into HG credit this week will push yields lower if inflation expectations flat line. The economy got an inflation shock due to the fact there arent enough factory workers to make things, not enough drivers to deliver things and not enough clerks to stock shelves. So enter technology and technology earning forecasts are expected to grow this quarter quite healthily as companies climb the wall of supply chain worries. Supply chain is the bottle neck and investments are already being made in a big way. The cost of capital is low so it's affordable. The retail stance on armaggeddon on forward guidance isn't really factoring in the warchests companies have built and now forced to be put to work due to the supply chain. The most potent measure of a company next year is not p/e nor ev/revenue nor ev/ebitda but Return on Capital Employed,