XJO closed at 7570 on 1 May. Then had risen to around 7745 by...

XJO closed at 7570 on 1 May. Then had risen to around 7745 by 2:30 pm today when the RBA announced that the cash rate remains unchanged. 175 points in under five days, including a 40 point rise between noon and 2:30 pm today. 40 points is more than 0.5%.

Although the apparent reluctance of the RBA to lift the cash rate appears to be deeply ingrained and highly predictable, critics of the RBA such as myself can easily interpret the above statistics as indicating that the RBA may also be leaky. In particular, the 40 point rise in the XJO today between noon and 2:30 pm suggests that by noon today the rates decision may have reached a stage where plenty of insiders probably knew that further debate had become irrelevant.

Would the XJO have risen more than 0.5% in the two and a half hours before the cash rate decision was announced if the decision was to be a rise in the cash rate? Is the RBA leaky or is this just a coincidence?

If the RBA is leaky then this 40 point rise in the XJO just before the cash rate announcement would indicate that the determination of the RBA not to raise rates is strong.