Weekly Wrap. Week ended 10/5/24A solid week on the XJO, up...

Weekly Wrap. Week ended 10/5/24

A solid week on the XJO, up +1.57%. Ten Sectors were up and only one down. The one negative was Discretionary -0.52%. That's a pointer to consumers pulling in their belts on non-essential items. Consumers will be looking for relief in the coming budget.

Daily chart for the XJO.

Four out of five days were positive this week with the only blight being Thursday, but that was sufficient to throw the three Super-trend lines in a "neutral" status. That's a situation where the trend may be changing - in this case, from up to down.

Friday was a narrow range, inside day - indicating indecision. That goes along with the mixed signal from the Supertrends.

Most of the indicators remain in bullish territory, but the Detrended Price Oscillator is sitting on the fence - again, that goes along with the mixed signal from the Super-trend Lines.

Meanwhile, the American market continues its strong up trend.

SP500

SP500 has had seven closes above the 5-Day EMA. That's indicative of a strong up-trend, but also suggests it is time for a small pull-back. The doji candle-stick on Friday also suggests a possible pull-back.

Given the strength of this rally, I'd expect any pull-back to be bought and the up-trend to continue.

Sector Performance this week.

As mentioned above, the only negative sector this week was Discretionary -0.52%.

Sectors doing better than the XJO, with notations Bullish/Neutral/Bearish, this week were (in order):

1. Utilities +4.79% Bullish
2. Energy +4.34% Bullish
3. Property +2.41% Bullish
4. Information Technology +2.4% Bullish
5. Telecommunication Services +1.7% Neutral
6. Materials +1.67% Neutral

Financials is by far the biggest sector and, thus, has the biggest influence on the XJO. It was more or less line ball with the XJO. Financials +1.5% just a little below the performance of the XJO +1.57%.

Besides Discretionary, the following sectors did worse than the XJO"

1. Industrials +1.35% Bullish
2. Staples +0.86%. Bearish
3. Health +0.79%. Neutral

Gold Miners, which is a sub-index of the Materials Sector, was up stronly +3.47%. Neutral.

For my money, the Sector to be in is Energy

XEJ Daily

Until this week Energy has been in a down trend since early April. Thursday saw the three Super-trend lines switch from Neutral to Bullish.

My short-term MACD (5/12/3) moved into the bullish zone on Friday. Other indicators, except DPO, are also in their bullish zones.

XEJ is now at its 50-Day MA so it might pause here in the very short-term. But the action in the past few days suggests more upside.

The two biggest stocks in the sector, WDS and STO, are both on bullish ratings.

Long-Term Investment Indicator

My Long-Term Investor Indicator is based on New Highs minus New Lows Cumulative. While the NH-NL CUM line remains above its 10-Day MA, the Long-Term Investor can maintain their bullish positions.

This indicator, which is a lagging indicator, went bullish in mid-December and has remained bullish since then despite the recent pull-back. On only one day, so far, has NH-NLs shown a negative number, but the NH-NL Cum line remains above its 10-Day MA.

This indicator trends very strongly. When it does change direction from bullish to bearish, the change should be carefully noted. and action taken. It won't get you into and out of a long-term trend at the beginning and end of a trend, but it usually helps to get most of the action.

Conclusion.

XJO had a strong week this week with Utilities and Energy leading the way. Discretionary is showing stress as consumers tighten their belts.

Judging by the SP500 we might be ready for a pull-back. I'd expect that pull-back to be minor (a dip) after a strong run-up and for investors to "buy-the-dip".

Energy is turning bullish after a big down=trend in April and early May.

Good luck.