Governments have had 18 months to get hospital ICU issues sorted, so that excuse for a lockdown would be beyond lame. And it would have been the only reason to lockdown. But maybe they will do it nonetheless.
Regarding markets, I think the world is in a mess due to incompetent leaders everywhere and deep corruption in the leading country America. I think the old model of government is outdated and can't keep up with the modern world. The evidence is that every crisis has been caused by incompetence/corruption, and/or it has had a laughably bad response - 9/11, Katrina, GFC, border issues, Tech overreach, and covid.
I think people got over-confident with the fall of communism. They thought that it proved capitalism is the answer. But maybe capitalism is going to fall too - it's just that communism falls more easily, not that capitalism is immune to collapse.
Of course, we are not seeing pure capitalism or even a proper balance of social safety net and capitalism. Instead, we are seeing neo-liberalism, which expects too much of globalisation and capitalism. Right from the start of covid, leaders were saying big pharma will save us with a vaccine and to just wait for that. And when markets fell, central banks over-reacted and pumped markets up to ridiculous all time highs, leading to even more extreme wealth for the mega-rich. Then we had supply chain problems caused by globalisation and just in time production, which aimed at squeezing every last cent of profit out of products.
FWIW, I think the answer is a balance of social safety net and capitalism, but with competent leaders. However, the current political system is based on electing politicians who are only good at getting elected. That actually requires lying and appealing to the public's emotions, which is an obviously unhealthy basis for management. Indeed, politicians are not good at logical thinking and sound management. But I don't see anyone with influence striving to fix the system. Everyone is just fighting with each other and stirring up trouble.
So again, I conclude that the world is a mess. However, it might take time for it all to fully unravel. It might be just a slow decay or some event might trigger an explosion. That's just my gut feeling. If some wise charismatic person appears, then that could trigger a positive outcome from the crisis.
(20min delay)