Juju,
You called it correctly, I cannot stay away and feel indebted in sharing information with the good guys here.
Whilst we have been compared from a resource comparison to Jubilee, this morning I have been researching what the extent of a commercial comparison to Kosmos looks like using
P50 estimates only and it gets VERY exciting.
The Jubilee find had a
P50 estimate of 370MMbls, with Kosmos holding 23.4% of this at float, this gives then a VERY generous float valuation of
$79 p/barrel at their share of P50, at a float price of $6B USD.
*Whilst the proven resources increase significantly to 3B down-track, I am using the P50 estimates for comparison.
In order to compare the P50 estimates side by side, in the following table, I have put recoverability at 100% of P50 estimates as I can't find the recoverability estimates of Jubilee in its infancy. I realise that this could be misleading, so in table 2 below, I have pulled the recoverability back to 35%, with Lupalupa at 40%.
The other changes that I have made from prior tables is - $15p/b NPV for SNE-1, with FAN-1 at $10p/b. For all other resources I have put a $5p/b evaluation, although to be honest the orange segments should be taken with a pinch of salt, dilution of L6 offshore in the FARM-in will greatly reduce our share, furthermore I would expect other structural changes if we get to actually drill into L6, i.e if we are not acquired earlier.
The point I want to make here is this;
If the market is making resource comparisons to Jubilee - a commercial comparison based solely on P50 estimates today values FAR at $5.11 per share. (The numbers do not lie). Again I repeat I am using P50 only, ignoring the upgraded and proven reserves established down-track.
Table 1;
Table 2; Recoverability back to 35% and 40% for Lupalupa
It is probably no coincidence then that Bell Potter makes the following comment in their latest research report, where they estimate FAR to be valued between 36 cents and 77 cents;
Market Depth & Share price
I feel that my post would not be complete without commenting on the Share price. There has been questions around why my spreadsheets to not compare to the market price by an individual who I would speculate is trying to down-ramp to acquire shares. I believe that the market will ascribe a fair valuation over time. Currently we are in a situation where 1 great find and another great find = market value less than our pre-drill values, which makes no sense at all to me. If any talk of majors showing interest comes to fruition, then watch the value fly.
The point I would like to make from the following graphic is this. The total value of the shares for sale if you bought out all of the shares from 0.088 through 0.098 is around $330K. i.e there is a very small amount of shares for sale at gift rates. I have been trying my best to pick off as many discounted shares as I can, however I honestly don't believe these prices will last.
In summary;
The few shares for sale at discounts are an absolute gift, a commercial comparison to what Kosmos achieved is eye-opener, more-so actually eye-watering and should provide no doubt around whether to acquire / hold or sell.
Hold onto your shares team, what can happen between now and March could be life-changing. We have very little downside now with tremendous upside, the weak hands will be shaken. The top-20 are acquiring and I believe the opportunity for 'Mum's and Dad' investors to get in are limited, any hint of accumulation by the Majors will mean we could very soon be looking at a share price which is multiples of where we sit today.
One Ask;
This post took 3 hours to compile, ignoring literally the days taken to work through the excel spreadsheet. If you like my work - like it. If you don't like it feel free to make suggestions to improve, I am not a financial advisor - I just happen to have a massive passion for FAR and think that we are sitting on a repeat of Hardman and or Kosmos which will change a lot of lifes.
If we see the normal down-ramping and comments that make no sense by the usual suspects - let's simply report them for baiting rather than respond. The moderators will be forced to remove the post, and or suspend the poster. Feeding the trolls through responding is turning the thread into a mess.
The trolls want your shares, so to will the majors before long. Hold on and don't succumb. If you want FAR at it's best...
(20min delay)