Barring a fantastic announcement leading to a huge volume and...

Barring a fantastic announcement leading to a huge volume and substantial price rise tomorrow, noteholders who have elected to convert this quarter will convert their .135 notes to shares at .01. It will be interesting to see how many convert at what is likely to be the most favourable time for conversion that will occur. It is not unlikely that the current vwap of under .016 has been maintained that way by judicious selling by larger holders also with notes over the last month or so in order to bring this about. Even the spike of 15th march (48,974,417 shares at avg price of .0173) was not enough to keep the current vwap over .016.

Who has been doing the selling (not to mention the buying)? Is it the stock lenders from GEM? No! MST does not appear in the list of outstanding borrowed securities that is registered with the ASX so presumably all the sales are from entities that actually own them. Is it day traders? I doubt it. The price is a little too consistent for a volatile low cap on the edge share like MST I think. Draw your own conclusions.

What might this mean for the near term future? We will see within a week or so how many conversions have been made and can make a judgement as to whether this was a predominant factor in keeping the price around .014. There may be a short term drop as some noteholders get out partially or in full making around 20-40% profit at a price of around .013. However, if the notes conversion was the major factor in driving the price down, you would expect there to be much less downward pressure on the sp now as there is no reason for anybody with a largish holding to keep the sp down. (Remember GEM stock lenders do not at the moment appear to be selling and forcing the price down - so whilst they may accumulate at a low price they are not pushing it lower. They'll want to make money when they sell as well!).

With the good announcement of 15th March, the agm coming up soon (maybe an encouraging statement from our CEO), further note conversions another quarter away and the "ever hopeful" possibility of some favourable technical or sales announcement, it would seem to me that we are at or close to the bottom of MST's downfall, so now looks like a good time to buy back in if you previously sold, or average down if still holding. It would not take much, I think, in the way of good news to push the price up 50% or more and for it to stay there or go higher. These prices may not be around for very much longer.

My opinion only. Of course, I have an interest in the sp rising as I hold shares in this company. Also, I could just be plain wrong - so take my view as you wish.