Hi All,
I spent an hour or so this afternoon crunching every aspect of AMI's current earnings and this is what I have come up with...
Assuming a gold price of $1740 AuD and an AUD of .77 I get the following.
The average AISC from Hera over the last 3 quarters is - $445 AUD
Hera's likely annual production rate is currently sitting at $65k oz, equating to $84,175,000 million per annum.
Peak average AUD AISC over the last 3 quarters is $1,000 AUD
Peak's likely annual production currently sits at 100k oz, equating to approx $74 mill per annum.
Total earnings from both operations per annum = $ 158,175,000 AUD
Current shares on issue = 855,000,000
Earnings per share = 17.8c
Cash in bank - $81,600,000 million
Approx consideration payable for Peak aquisition @ .77c AUD/USD = $70,950,000
Approx reduction in Peak consideration due from Jan - March production that will be attributed to AMI = $15,000,000 (this is a geuss and we won’t know exact figures until New Gold report next week, see recent annoucements).
Approx amount payable for Peak = $55,950,000 AUD
Total cash after Peak acquisition = $25,650,000
Current debt = $75,400,000
Approx debt per share = .08c
Approx cash per share = .03c
PE Ratio less debt per share + cash per share:
PE Ratio of 5 = .867c
PE Ratio of 8 = $1.42
PE Ratio of 10 = $1.79
PE of 15 = $2.70.
Current mine life is approx 8 years, this being said I am conservatively targeting $1.42 per share.
My assumptions don’t include any upside for current exploration that is underway and will likely extend the project life and don't account for ANY copper production out of PEAK as i am no expert on copper.
Peak has averaged 8.6 million pounds of copper production over the last 20 years.
Please note these are my calculations based on all information made available by AMI.
Good luck -> see you at $1.42
Nothing here is advise or a recommendation to buy or sell shares, these are purely my musings and an attempt to value this compay, This opinion is mine only, I am not an advisor, broker or anything like that, just an interested shareholder.
As always do your own research and speak to a licensed advisor before making any investment decisions.
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