AMI 0.00% 21.5¢ aurelia metals limited

Going on the Peak Acquisition and Cashflow announcement the...

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    Going on the Peak Acquisition and Cashflow announcement the other day, I have come to the conclusion that Peak is actually a hell of a lot better than we may think.
    Ahh, but why you say???
    Well, there was $36m in the locked box mechanism for the quarter. This implies a margin of $1414.5 after copper credits per ounce. This is of course operational gross margin. As we know, New Gold has significant debt and therefore hedging (likely would have been in place due to debt covenants and imo likely at much lower than current so potentially a couple of hundred bucks per oz there alone) plus development etc which pushed the AISC to $800/oz (approx. $900/oz margin). If anyone has insight into New Gold's hedging position, that would be very enlightening.
    So what you say???
    Well, we are in a much better place tha New Gold. We have net cash, any hedging now would be at much better levels than previous etc. If that corresponds to lower AISC which it should in the long term (we might have to wear some higher sustaining development costs in the near term), then we are potentially running at ~41000 ozs per Q, or around 160kozpa at AISC around $500/oz. That equates to margin of ~$1240/oz or ~$198m pa.
    After today, lets say we have a forward PER of 1.75 at $0.42, where to from here based on those numbers?
    PER of 2: $0.46
    PER of 3: $0.69
    PER of 4: $0.93
    PER of 5: $1.16
    PER of 6: $1.39
    PER of 7: $1.62
    PER of 8: $1.85
    PER of 9: $2.08
    PER of 10: $2.31
    These figures are based on achieving current rates of recovery, grades etc. $1 should be a cinch from here in the short term. We will require resource updates to push far above $1.42 imo. They will come though, and when we are generating cash like we will be over the next year, particularly when we get into the North Pod, we may look to not only develop Nymagee, but look at acquiring near-term projects nearby...
 
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