I didn't say a cruch selldown is logical or warrented just that...

I didn't say a cruch selldown is logical or warrented just that the it happens so often the investment community almost comes to expect it. Regardless, if you are a longterm holder things eventually settle down to "fair value" anyway.

ALZ is still highly exposed to property market pricing, both through the obvious $2B investment portfolio but especially through large holdings of land, corporate earnings tied intimately to property outlook and even drilling down to substantial potential balance sheet liabilities associated with long-term rental/lease guarentees handed as inducements to sell developments.

I am wary that Oz now has one of the the worlds highest geared housing market and a commercial market that held up pretty well because of the recession we never had. The market is wary of this and overseas players who have seen the property carnage debt-deflation wreaks in a recession are very wary. China trips up with their own credit bubble, commodities fall out of bed, AUD drops as int rates slashed, balance of payments spirals out of control and all the massive overseas debt roll-over for our housing market suddenly becomes more expensive increasing our mortgage rates, all while jobs start dissappearing, corporates walk away from leases ..... I'm sure this doesn't sound too far fetched in light of recent history. Just a risk to be aware of.

The return on ALZ is currently about 9% which is not really that flash (WBC offering 8%pa risk free in term deposits). At 4.1c if you bought 1 month ago you have already handed back over 1 years divi! With the markets rolling over now return OF your money is again more improtant than return ON your money.

Much of the net asset backing is land bank stuff that generates no return until developed so the gamble is either successful corporate development=profit=capital gain or devaluation=capital loss. The discount to NTA is certainly re-assuring and provides a safety buffer but at 9% divi (~= underlying profit) but it probably doesn't spin many peoples wheels. Don't get me wrong it offers good value but I just think the risk return is better elsewhere. Buy AAZPB at 11% yield, 20% cap gain if/when they are redeemed and no dilution concerns or divi cut concerns (though definitely liquidity concerns so not right for everyone). Then go chasing alpha elsewhere.

That said if the NTA remains discounted too much for too long Capitaland will probably whack them at close to NAB anyway and you will be laughing all the way to the bank. Certainly worse REIT's to invest in, the price has already come off substantially so I would think, all things considered, relatively low risk.

goodluck