$1.50 - $2.00

At the current share price (1.92) BTA has a market cap of around $350mill (including the 41mill shares about to be issued under the SPP).

On the basis of expected FY06 revenue of around $10-15mill (=roughly breakeven), this might seem to some a bit rich. But given the strong likelihood of significant Relenza royalty revenue from FY07 onwards, I don't think $300-350mill is an unreasonable market cap for this stock at the present time.

Factoring in day-trader volatility and speculative newsflow, I'd expect BTA to trade in a band between $1.50 and $2.00 before we get an announcement regarding mediation in late November. If BTA settle with a substantial payout ($100mill+), I see the stock trading between $2.50 and $3.00 during December. A settlement payout above $200mill could see the stock trading above $3.50 ($630mill+ market cap) in December. The sp is then likely to settle down after the half year results come out.

If no settlement is reached in November and the case goes to court, there is likely to be a a bit of a sell-off (perhaps down to $1.20), but should rebound to the $1.50-$2 range by the time the court case begins.