I think it is good to have diversity of perspectives and like to have my thesis challenged. I don't find your arguments persuasive but do appreciate someone pushing an alternative view, but I also wouldn't be surprised if you're just doing this to shit stir and for lols.
It will be personally devastating to watch for me but I could see price dropping to closer to your target after FY results and guidance disappointing compared to market expectations, which I think are for significant improvement on FY 24 when I think may only be minor. ATM ramp up for SBI contract will weigh on EBITDA and free cash flow due to high up front costs for ATMs. That being said both EBITDA and FCF improved with CBI roll-out so may not be the case, while White Label extending life of replaced SBI ATMs will help bottom line assuming refurbishing, relocation reinstallation costs don't have high upfront costs. The other positive/negative at results will be what Findi holdco have done with cash raised from option conversion and potentially increased ownership share of Findi subsidiary.
That being said I do think as Findi will get closer to peer 8-10x (or higher) EBITDA multiple as we get to IPO within 3 years, and over that time frame EBITDA should be significantly higher than last financial year.
FND Price at posting:
$2.60 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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