re: hate to spoil the party but... Alpha, sure hope you're...

re: hate to spoil the party but... Alpha, sure hope you're right, I've still a fair bit of buying to do. The SP doubled June to Dec last year and has since doubled again in 4 months, a casual look certainly would make anyone wonder if it is overdone.

Interesting the differences between F/A and T/A, I'm only in the very early stages of trying to understand T/A and still have trouble working out how T/A can anticipate future events from what is past market action. It was interesting to watch that recent drop from $2.04 to $1.52, as it turned out there was no fundamental reason for the drop except initially a few larger shareholders wanted out for whatever reason, this then spooked the traders and then as it dropped through $1.73 which apparently was an important support line on the chart T/A people then started selling with the final drop from $1.60 to $1.52 being some idiot placing a comparatively low volume 'at market' sell order.

Looking forward on a F/A basis I can only think of 3 occurences that would see your $1 call realised, that is a complete market meltdown, loss of the RTS CEO and his team or a disaster with the Comms division. Comms has shrunk to a degree that I believe it could not do much damage, even a complete closedown of the division would just mean mainly non-cash writeoffs. The CEO of Traffic is very committed to building the company but that is always a risk with any top performer.

On the other hand there are a number of future developments that could support the present price or force it higher, that is a better than projected 30/6 result (almost certain now the A$ has weakened), a major breakthrough in Texas and Florida (now very likely), continued and increasing institutional buying and a few others I really should not speculate about.

$1 or $2.50+ by Sept? I'll keep this thread and look at it again on 30/9 if I haven't fallen off my perch by then.

Would very much value your explanation of the chart, I guess you're too busy to spend much time on it but is there any chance you could post your chart with a bit of explanation of your workings?
Thanks.

Madmacs, wadda you reckon, up or down?