Latest Update
-7.4
Outlook: El Nino Alert
From BOM
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been steady over the past two weeks, remaining close to the El Niño threshold value. The SOI value for the 30 days to 31 March was −7.4. The 90-day SOI value remains within neutral territory at −6.5, but has generally been only a little below the threshold value over the past fortnight.
The passage of tropical systems near Darwin and Tahiti can affect atmospheric pressure at these locations, meaning that SOI values during the northern Australian wet season can be volatile, and should therefore be viewed with caution.
Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.
El Niño ALERT – tropical Pacific Ocean warm but little atmospheric response
The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT. This means the chance of El Niño developing in 2019 is approximately 70%; around triple the normal likelihood.
Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have remained close to El Niño thresholds for the past five weeks. The atmosphere has responded to the surface warmth at times, but is yet to show a consistent El Niño-like response. For example, trade winds have varied between weaker-than-average and average strength.
Most international climate models predict tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures will remain at El Niño levels at least to mid-year. This would increase the likelihood of the tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean reinforcing each other, and developing into a full El Niño, with the resultant changes in Australian and global weather patterns. Predictions made at this time of year have lower accuracy than those made in winter or spring and should be used with some caution.
-7.4
Outlook: El Nino Alert
From BOM
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been steady over the past two weeks, remaining close to the El Niño threshold value. The SOI value for the 30 days to 31 March was −7.4. The 90-day SOI value remains within neutral territory at −6.5, but has generally been only a little below the threshold value over the past fortnight.
The passage of tropical systems near Darwin and Tahiti can affect atmospheric pressure at these locations, meaning that SOI values during the northern Australian wet season can be volatile, and should therefore be viewed with caution.
Sustained negative values of the SOI below −7 typically indicate El Niño while sustained positive values above +7 typically indicate La Niña. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.
El Niño ALERT – tropical Pacific Ocean warm but little atmospheric response
The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT. This means the chance of El Niño developing in 2019 is approximately 70%; around triple the normal likelihood.
Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have remained close to El Niño thresholds for the past five weeks. The atmosphere has responded to the surface warmth at times, but is yet to show a consistent El Niño-like response. For example, trade winds have varied between weaker-than-average and average strength.
Most international climate models predict tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures will remain at El Niño levels at least to mid-year. This would increase the likelihood of the tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean reinforcing each other, and developing into a full El Niño, with the resultant changes in Australian and global weather patterns. Predictions made at this time of year have lower accuracy than those made in winter or spring and should be used with some caution.
ENSO.png
