Well i agree with both dexter1 and entropylord... The poor...

Well i agree with both dexter1 and entropylord... The poor reservoir quality is a big worry, however as entropylord stated high CO2 and H2S levels are common everywhere, e.g. consider Gorgon which has significant levels of CO2 - but that can be dealt with...

What i guess you need to understand is the risk here in tunisia is a lot more than compared to others, so you cannot compare it to your MMR, MEO's, KAR's etc... However the decision you have to make is, are you willing to take the risk, the potential upside is large and there is strong support from management... With their CEO being with the company for over 20 years, and Wolfgang persistent to retain the Sicily Chanel after moving from Groove energy to Audax...

Here is my valuation of Audax:
Assumptions:
- 10% COS for drill.
- NPV = $4/barell
- Using P50 estimates and approx 250M shares on issue
- Retaining 40% of dougga
- Assuming potential of 0.5TCF (1TCF = 187mmboe) in the four prospects on the onshore permit and same sucess rate and retaining 50%.
- Assuming NPV of $10 for drilled vanessa gas field and reserves estimate of 22bcf (4.15mmboe) - which they beleive is recoverable...

Sambuca = 4*270*0.1*0.3 = $32.4M
Dougga = 4*70*0.1*0.5 = $11.2M
Onshore Permits = 4*0.5*187*0.1*0.5 = $18.7M
Vanessa = 4.114*4.15 = $17.1M

Valuation = 31.5cents

Comments:
- You can place a recoverability factor on your P50 estimates, instead ive used very low sucess rates...
- This excludes all Australian spin-off assets, and their blue sky estimate of 1Bboe in the Sicily Channel.
- Low success rates for both onshore and offshore tunisia.

Feel free to critize...

Now also with regards to their onshore permits, are the targetting the same sands/reservoirs? That's something i need to research and consider becausethe risk is then still the same as offshore.