Beeppman,I appreciate your efforts with a contra argument, and...

Beeppman,

I appreciate your efforts with a contra argument, and appreciate your concern for my forgone future profits.

I took a look at your link, a gas processing plant, quite a nice shiny one with lots of expensive stainless steel, I guess that is to handle the H2S and CO2 mentioned. Backs up Dexter's credibility doesn't it.

Really it's the DDWI that puts me off Sambuca, not the geology (which I know nothing about), nor the nearology. I've given a little more thought to the free carry ADX is giving you WER people in the say 10% chance of success. If we assume development costs of USD20/bbl and a capitalised NPV of 5 for future OPEX for a total of 25/bbl, and you are carried simply 40%, put a little simplistically ADX is effectively paying an extra USD 16.7/bbl for the oil.

I guess in the event of success (10%), then appraisal is going to be required, esp if the reservoir is not the best, so at that stage ADX would not yet pay this, they'd do a capital raising for more drilling (and dilution hopefully well above 13 cps), and effectively have an option to pay the extra 17/bbl if they can drill up good enough results. Seems to me a pretty full price to be paying for undeveloped oil under a PSC fiscal regime, esp if there may be technical/economic challenges.

Please someone correct me if I have misunderstood how the DDWI works.

Otherwise sorry, not interested in ADX for Sambuca, but you yourself might be on a winner with WER if the telemarketers aren't too greedy or dodgy. Sure you have an all or nothing gamble (not my game) but I can't see ADX on the winners side of the ADX/WER deal.

Might still take an interest on Dougga once the Sambuca outcome is known, but they"ll need to show a little more credibility and professionalism first.

Still looks to me like despite (according to you) Shell sniffing in the area, no-one in recent times has been prepared to pay more than USD 1 million for this pair of permits.

EL