Given it appears the market value of the completed Agbaja project looks like being far less than the capex required to develop it, can someone please explain why the Kogi Iron Board continues to spend money on it - EIS, conversion of EL to ML, etc?
The only explanation I can see is that the Board believes the future value will exceed the project's cost. As I have demonstrated using EV / EBITDA ratios for companies operating in the same sectors (iron ore and steel), that appears unlikely. So, what numbers are the Board using? (They have done the numbers haven't they?) Assuming they have looked at this matter closely, will the Board share their numbers?
NOTE: there is a slight "apples and oranges" issue in the analysis I presented above. I will redo the numbers but at first glance the impact appears slight. For example, instead of using 20% of post-completion NPV8 value to estimate Kogi Iron's future market value, the figure might need to be in the 25 to 30% range.
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