Two comments:
- Afterpay listed at $1/share in May 2016, it was six years ago. Totally different market, different time. The concept of BNPL was nascent and exciting. Trying to compare it to IOU/BNPL today is nonsensical in my opinion, as much as trying to argue IOU is "more than BNPL" when all of their marketing, announcements and expenditure to date points to BNPL activity. Even the IDSB investment was couched in terms of how they would capitalise on the relationship to cross-sell BNPL to IDSB customers (which still hasn't happened).
- Arguing that IDSB is worth $100M today is misleading at best. IOU paid 10x revenues near the top of the market, but with an adjusted valuation that if there was a 10% variance on Profit Before Tax, they would pay 10x PBT. In any event, the wider market isn't pricing things on revenue anymore (and even back in September 2021, 10x revenues was very expensive). I regularly track a basket of fintech/lenders/BNPL's and as at yesterday's close, the average FY21 revenue multiplier is 2.3x (I can post the data if you want to see it split per stock, it covers ZIP, EML, TYR, SZL, HUM, SPT, WZR, MME, OPY, IOU, LBY by order of market cap size). Why would all these ASX fintech/lenders - some of them quite established - trade at 2.3x revenues, yet IDSB still be worth 10x revenues? The truth is reflected in IOU's current market cap which is just $29M. Within that amount, the forward-looking market is including soon-to-be 42% ownership of IDSB. 9 months on, IOUpay have utterly failed to show the market the value of the investment, and to make it worse, the huge cash outlay has stunted their core product growth. I'd suggest, in current market environment, IDSB in its entirety is worth no more than 3.5x FY21 revenue or around $35M. And for just 21% of that IOU have already paid $21M... No wonder the audited accounts have been delayed this long. The core problem is that the only figure shareholders have is profit before tax - so nobody really knows whether it's even making much money. It remains the biggest micro-cap-acquisition-own-goal I can think of.
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