If we got to a million downloads that quickly this thing would have taken on a life of its own IMHO and you would need to start looking at it very seriously. When it gets to that point I'll make a model using the best download growth number I have and I'll factor in some retention statistics assumptions. Then I should be able to plot some projections for active user and factor in some conservative revenue per user numbers, which should allow me to project revenue as a function of download numbers. At this stage maintaining a high download rate is the most important factor.
I've looked at my data again more carefully and the best exponential fit I get is when I start from when the downloads ticked over 50,000 on 31/5/2015. An exponential curve with a daily growth rate of 5.5% fits the data pretty well starting from this point. Even at this lower growth rate we should reach 1 million downloads in 13 days from now or on 26 July 2015. This is now my best estimate for the 1 million mark.
Eshmun
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