HDR - share price

Any serious thoughts on why the HDR price has fallen after the Banda (Ching4-3) drilling ?

1. Rumour of placement - possible, but I doubt if this could be a genuine reason for the sell down. If the find is as good as we believe, instos would have taken whatever is being offered knowing WPL bought in 10% at $1.10. Insto will not make megabucks with the sale and WPL will save a paltry ~ $1-2 million. These guys are for much bigger game !
2. Day traders - their effect is not likely to make any significant impact on the price as compared to instos.
3. Instos aware of some major issues and unwilling to commit now ? Is it that the production costs will be very high, the production not expected before 2005, still some serious doubts on the quality and extent of find ?
4. Common knowledge that irrespective of the results so far, HDR will need funds for next year and if no one comes forward, the placement will be forced at lower prices?
5 General market sentiment ?

I am assuming that:
1. Insiders have the information
2. Most of us, on this forum, get info much later
3. Ones with info are people/instos with far greater resourses than all of us combined (not meant to annoy anyone !)
4. All at #3 love a bargain and do not miss a chance to make a quid
5. The market moves with definite information, most of the time, available with the big boys.

In suppport of my above assumptions, I give two recent examples - one where I believed in the above and it worked and one where I still trusted my gut feeling and lost. A small holding in TMS - I sold out when it touched 39c as the price was dropping and I felt something was wrong. I still have a small parcel of IHG - believe something is very wrong, announcements are looking great as far as sales go but price is dropping to new lows. Clearly, it has not been wise decision to go by feeling & retain the holding.

So I feel something is seriously wrong somewhere at HDR; unfortunately cannot find a plausible explanation.
The price starting falling from ~90c even before the announcement. The rumour was a significant find, later confirmed. How were the sellers so sure the price will come down and what possible information is out there which is holding the price back ?

Can someone help ??

Thanks.