hi
@lurk39999, re-buying into CXO was never part of my strategy. My plan was always to use any proceeds from sale to benefit my broader life and not to simply cycle the money back into the stock market (the sale of the first parcel basically paid off my house). For my holdings in CXO, I decided to throw everything I could afford at it before it had taken off, and once I got my average to sub 5c (my first buy was about 8c, then some in the 7's, then the 6's, some in the 5's, and then a bunch in 3's and 4s ), I decided a year or so ago that I would not average up. This decision was largely taken out of the frustration that I experienced with this stock (long termers will know what I mean by that), so I wanted to get to a position that if it ever took off that I would be protected from any downside risk by maintaining a low average. In my effort to average down, I ended up getting in a lot deeper than I had originally planned. The additional buys for me were all based on research as I knew that CXO had the goods and had to be recognised by the market sooner or later, but it took many more years than I thought - admittedly, It took me a while to realise that lithium was in a down cycle, and so part of the frustration was driven by my own ignorance and not necessarily because of anything the company was doing. I have always had a strength to plan for the long term, but I still need to learn to look at little shorter as well - this perspective probably would have helped me with managing the early stages of my CXO investment.
Having said that I won't re-buy in no way means that I do not think that CXO still has a very bright future (I still hold approx 3.2m shares). To answer your question, I think that the SP probably sits at fair value based on the lithium resource between 30 - 35c, and if we get some good gold numbers, 50-60c is not out of the question in the short to medium term. If the company can get two resources off the ground and into production, either on its own for via a JV, then depending on the size of the gold resource, the SP could be many multiples of where it is now. A lot would need to happen to get both gold and lithium off the ground obviously, and we need to see what our gold prospects are (from the assays), but it is definitely something I am watching. A take over is also a possibility as there has been a lot of volume recently. Then there are the other resources as well, (silver, copper, and uranium). These will probably benefit CXO by being able to sell them off, rather than developing them, but they are potentially good little side hustles none the less.
I have held onto my current holdings because of the amount of news that is set to come. We know that we have:
1. Lithium infill and gold assays due any day now,
2. A DFS that is under way (I am expecting an NPV of 280-300m but it could be up to 350m - this could be higher again if the yearly production figures increase dramatically),
3. Binding off takes that could come anytime - any time frame around this has probably been accelerated given the obvious attention the sector is now getting,
4. Finance that could come anytime (probably accelerated now too as suppliers would want security of supply, of course assuming it comes through an offtake) but there is very cheap bank finance available as well - we will probably end up with a combination.
5. FID within 6 months.
Any/all of the above will give the SP a good kick towards achieving the levels mentioned above.
CXO is one of the only near-term producers (other than those already operating) that can supply to meet demand between 2022 and 2025 which is the ramp up period for EV's globally, so we will be highly sort after I think if the large manufacturers want to be ready for 2025-2030. This is especially true as we have a high quality product that is in a stable jurisdiction. It is worth noting that the lack of other suitable supply could give us a SP premium as well!
So much to look forward to, obviously DYOR.
(20min delay)