Very serious. I didn't say it can't happen, I said we are still quite far off.
The examples you have provided are a great comparison.
Take Bellvue's share price - it was about 13c when they made their discovery hole in late 2017- not too dissimilar to us. According to the FY18 annual report they had 258M shares on issue at the start of FY18 and issued about 140M shares during FY18 to end with 398M shares. So 50% shareholder dilution that year.
And from 13c in late 2017 it wasn't until late 2020 that their share price briefly hit $1.30, before hovering up and down around 90c for most of 2021. So this is 4 years after their discovery hole. In fairness to you, BGL now have 1.27B shares on issue (just over 5x AGC's number) - but this happened over time with multiple share placements and dilution.
Meteroic's Ionic Clay Rare Earth Caldeira project (note, not Au or Cu) is not too dissimilar in terms of trajectory. About 6c when they announced the acquisition of the project in Dec 2022 and peaking at 28c 12 months later at the end of 2023 - just under 5x shareprice growth).
If you look at their financial report up to Dec 2022 (released mid 2023) - they already had $1.5B shares on issue, so a market cap of about $91M at 6c per share. This also included the $20M sale of one of their assets and the fact that they had an income stream from that asset (something we do not have).
It then took them 6 months to briefly touch 26.5c - so a market cap of ~$400M but growth of only 4.5x pre-discovery. In fact, that market cap also included the gifting to directors of about 200M performance options and a $25M share placement in April.
I'm not saying AGC won't have significant success - I am significantly invested in the hope this does happen - but thinking we're going to $1 overnight seems a bit naiive. There is every chance we will get there and hopefully beyond. But good things take time.
I will happily be singled out for a "this didn't age well" referral in 6 months if I'm completely wrong - then we have all won!
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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4 | 61963 | 0.265 |
6 | 103235 | 0.260 |
1 | 100000 | 0.255 |
9 | 71179 | 0.250 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.300 | 100690 | 2 |
0.305 | 9998 | 1 |
0.310 | 6225 | 2 |
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0.320 | 19047 | 2 |
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