There are continuous post of REE prices most show positive change. It is good to step back occasionally and look at bigger picture. Most posters seem to like AM, I like MP but will use AM. Since this is the big picture I am going to do eyeball rounding but will include the link for those that want accuracy. You will have to select the individual elements yourself. I will always round to make prices look better.
http://www.asianmetal.com/RareEarthsPrice/RareEarths.html
NdFEB as a non member I can only see this to have an idea of Nd. Nd PR is 25% of mount weld by weight. It is 70% to 75% by $ value. 30 days -0.7 %, 90 days -1.1%, 360 days – 4.8%. Since these are all negative I will use a lower number than actual for the Nd Pr price, $30.00 Using $30 lessens the negative impact on ASP. Yearly change 30 day 0.7 x 12= -8.4%, 90 day 4 x 1.1 =4.4%, 360 = -4.8%. Will leave others to you. No compounding.
Pr I have been tracking Nd Pr, Nd and Pr. Nd Pr seems to track Nd which is 75% of its make up. I will give Pr for reference.
30 Day 2%, 90 day 2% 360 day 3%.
Ce Ce is twice the volume by MT W weight as NdPr. NdPr price is about 15 times higher so a change in CE has to be 7 times greater than NdPr to have the same effect on ASP. Use $3.00 for Ce ASP impact actual Lynas price is lower.
30 day 0%, 90 day 1%, 360 day 8%,
La by Mt W weight is about the same as ND PR. Its price is lower so it needs about 7 x the change to equal Nd Pr. Since again these are positive use $5.00 to see change on asp. Lynas actual price is lower.
30 day 0.2%, 90 day 1%, 360 day 11%
It is impossible to provide an accurate number without knowing volumes. I have always used more positive # than the numerical average to show more positive increases than what a numerical average would be.
There have been many improvements to product quality. Currently Nd Pr is about 34% of sales by weight, up 9% from Q1. (3%/.30= 9%), (136% more than MT W by weight) These combined have caused the ASP to go up. This is very good for Lynas, AL and team should be congratulated for work well done. My only point is that even with the Oct. Nov. and recent 3 weeks combined price increases we have not seen REE price increases cause a positive change in ASP, from 30, 90, and 360 days ago. They have started a major improvement campaign for La and Ce this will have a positive impact on what these two elements contribute to asp. But it may also increase Ce and La volume and even if the prices of these two go up 50% between improvements and Market price increases, will price increase offset the negative impact of the percentage of NdPr being lowered on ASP?
Also there is the production cost impact of lower grade ore which is still unknown, there should be no impact on individual product prices, but how will margin change? Will there be an impact on product mix?
(20min delay)