Where to begin..
Dxy failed the hrly again last night
Small caps made a new high
Spx hasn't jumped any fences
Vix refusing to move bearish or bullish (waiting for cpi data tonight?)
Ftse refusing to budge (but at least they've finished their piss & done 2 after piss shakes. Maybe also waiting for cpi data tonight)
For anyone telling me we priced in a rate cut because of social media, I've decided to post my 10yr bond yields chart (I've circled the numbers so those that have difficulty differentiating between 4.1 & 4.35 can see which number is higher)
Red arrows showing resistance of 4.10% (current interest rates) through June
Last Thursday markets decided to see what it feels like if we raised rates to 4.35% (that's when markets shat themselves)
Orange arrows are further rate rises
Marked darker purple line is a target of 3% by 2025 (slow controlled market climb back up)
The lower lighter purple line is a target of 3% by some time in 2024 (rba keeps raising rates & watch the numbers tumble with markets flying afterwards)
I expect the yields to return to their daily ema under 4.1% again (how low depends on the cpi tonight & the rba/fed)
You can see the correlation between support on my after hours chart (red lines)
Top red line should've held if markets kept the assumption we remain at 4.1%
I still expect the blue arrow to be the current trading range while markets continue to trade the lows
Bears will expect the orange arrow since we've been there once before
If those bond yields keep falling after tonight, we could retest that purple or red line & attempt another market high
We haven't tested a market high since feb
All we've done is keep testing market support until the rba stops threatening to raise rates (with a few token bounces to protect lows)
XJO current top fence today is at 7140 (7120 at the close)
Bulls jump that & next target is 7180 tonight
Bottom fence is at 7080 (7060 at the close)
(20min delay)