$10 Billion Deal, page-10328

Hi mx,

As you know there has been endless speculation about a takeover for more than a decade. There have been many people making false claims that some secret entity is accumulating before they launch a takeover. Years and years of claims that the share price has been falling because of big time manipulators trying to force poor shareholders into selling on the cheap. We have all seen these posts and know which posters make these sorts of claims don't we? But in the real world what has actually happened?

Have we ever seen any of this supposed secret accumulation result in an entity taking a significant stake?
Has the top holders report ever shown such an entity?
Has there ever been an offer?

Nope. None of these things have ever happened. So what does this tell us? There are two options to explain this:

a) The secret big time professional market manipulators are either really crap at their job having failed to accumulate the mere $150k of stock over 10+ years necessary to appear in the top holders report; or
b) The hundreds of posts telling us about secret takeover plans and accumulation by the big guys were just complete clap. Ask yourself, who makes this stuff up and for what purpose?

That said, do you know what has actually happened repeatedly during these years? Yep, that's right. R&D and Capital Raisings. They do R&D and trials, they run out of money then they ask for more money. Thats the nature of R&D companies and that is exactly what Biotron have done for decades. Its not surprising or a secret.

There is always the possibility that this time will be different. Lets hope that the mid 2023 HIV trial results will attract a partner or even a bidder but there is nothing in the trading volume, top holders report, substantial holding declarations or anything else to suggest that there is any interest from a big player at this moment in time.

On the other hand there is plenty of information and reports to suggest that the company is almost out of cash and that its net assets are now probably less than 1/40th of its market capitalization. There is everything to suggest that a capital raising is just around the corner which is why the SP keeps going lower. Given that the last time Biotron reached this point they waited until the very last minute then issued stock at a 42% discount to market, its really not hard to understand why the market is dragging the price down. The market isn't stupid.

As for your question re a resolution, as per Max's comments there are at least 3 types of takeover and all of them require shareholders acceptance and/or approval. The main thing to look out for a the poison pill some boards seed to ensure an offer is accepted.