Scoots,
There is no need to have a go at anybody who talks about the CR. They aren't saying this to scare you or get you angry. That might just be a bonus.
Seriously though, do you remember in 2022 when some people here were desperately selling the story that there was no need for a CR. Even on the day that the CR was announced some were still saying that there absolutely wouldn't be one. I won't mention any names but you recall that don't you? So many stories had been pushed around the place to justify the claims but none of the tales made the slightest difference when the CR was finally announced, months after the company should have done it.
Do you remember all the insults and name calling directed at those who correctly warned about what was about to happen. Do you remember those who got a rude shock because they just refused to believe it would happen. Best to learn from the lessons of the past and never believe anybody who tells you that history is irrelevant. It was then and it is now. A CR is a very real possibility.
This time around we have all the same circumstances as 2022; ie:
- Company is currently running on fumes, just as they were then. The $1.28m was as of two months ago and as shown in the last quarter they were still blowing through around $1.1m per quarter at that point, despite stories around here 3 months earlier that burn rate had dropped off to virtually nothing. It wasn't true. It dropped back to the longer term average of $1.1 to $1.2m. Cash should last till sometime in July unless something changes. We are just about to enter June so likely not a lot in the bank now. Also note that of the last 15 quarters, only one had an expenditure burn rate of less than $1m.
- In early 2022 before the CR we were told that the 2 separate HIV trials (which we are still waiting for) were fully funded. Believe what you will about what may or may not already been funded and/or paid for but until we see results I wouldn't count on any of that. Still racking my brain to figure out how two of the 3 current trials couldn't possibly have been fully funded in early 2022 yet a subsequent CR, placement and 2 rounds of R&D money later we are near broke again and still awaiting those same results. Where did all the money raised since early 2002 go if not into these trials?
- Results are due shortly, just as they were when they announced the 2022 CR. Remember that in 2022 they told us that results for two of the current HIV trails were due H2 2022. Two years on they are still due shortly. No doubt they will come but we can't in all honestly assume anything about the timeline or that results will magically change the financial situation.
- Back then there were people absolutely convinced that non-equity funding sources would make the CR not needed. Today we hear different versions of the same story. We can't seriously expect that money from a 3rd party will make it into the company accounts in the next 7-9 weeks after negotiations for a stake in results which are as yet not known.
- Back in 2022 the SP went into rapid decline and those in denial of what was actually happening sported stories about it being the result of manipulation. Look at the SP chart and the comments here. Same sh1te !
Now go through the company historic financials. Is there a single year when the company has ever completed their accounts and received R&D money before Q4 (Nov)? Even in 2022 when they were flat broke and pretending they weren't, they still didn't manage to get it until late Nov after the CR was done.
Finally, you still seem to believe in the stories sold here about some scenario whereby thousands of options holders become enchanted by a magic spell and all become selfless and exercise their options 5 months early in direct contradiction of would commonly be thought their own financial interests. Remember, according to that story told in these threads, as soon as the options are above water they would all be converted. Well they were above water from Oct last year until recently but none got exercised in the more than 6 months in which it was expected by some that they would be. The money stayed in option holders pockets. They didn't race out and exercise early. I imagine people would currently be kicking themselves if they had believed the magic options exercise BS and actually exercised at 6c when they didn't need to and now had paid up for shares only worth 5c and in a downtrend. Waiting to see what happens is of course the entire point of holding options instead of shares. Generally you don't pay up and risk your own capital until you have to, and only then if it makes financial sense to do so.
Mate, there is always other possibilities but at this point in time the most likely one by far appears to be a CR to remove the short term financial risks. In fact I will go so far as to predict the broad wording used in an upcoming announcement to describe the reasons for the CR. Something like "to put the company into a strong financial position for any commercial negotiations". We shouldn't fear the CR. We need to embrace it and get it done. Its necessary as it was in each and every previous occasion that they have done one. The longer they leave it, like last time, the worse the price. The worse the price the more stock they have to issue to raise the required cash. The more stock they issue the greater the dilution. You get the picture right. Delaying and pretending its not needed is actually much worse for shareholders.
There is no point ripping into the people who talk about the CR as doing so won't stop it happening. Misplaced anger won't stop the SP sliding in anticipation of it happening as it has been doing in recent weeks. There is no point getting angry at the people who are actually only saying what the majority of the market thinks. Nobody is going to take your shares off you and talk of a CR doesn't in any way reduce the possibility of a big win if results are excellent and partner is found.
I hope this helps reduce your fear of the CR. The time to fear it was several months ago when we first warned that it was coming and before the SP dropped by more than 50%. Now its largely priced in so much less to fear now if these sorts of major price adjustments worry you.
