BIT (ASX) $10 Billion Deal

Originally posted by GiddyYup: ↑

I think you missed a digit out there caspex. The results are 18 months late, not 8. The two current HIV trials were originally scheduled to produce results in H2, 2022. That was later updated to H1, 2023. Then Q3, 2023. Then Sept. Then ........... well you know the rest !

In my way of thinking we can't just ignore the majority of the story and start at a convenient place because it supports our preferred narrative. We need to understand how these guys operate in order to have realistic expectations of what they will do next. I warned of the upcoming CR in 2022 and again this year not because its a fault or a failure but because its a critical and normal thing for companies in the R&D stage to do and an unavoidable financial necessity at this point. I have warned of the delays typical of BIT trials in recent years not because it means the trial outcomes will be poor but because if we expect them to deliver anything on time then we are almost certain to be disappointed based on past performance. These guys are much better at science than running a public company. Basic and realistic expectations. I want them to be better at project management but I know they aren't so I would be silly to expect it. I'm betting on their science and not their timelines.

We have no knowledge of any actual NDA or with who. That story was fun but completely devoid of any verifiable or even useful facts. I have no doubt that they have many actual NDAs in place because in 2018 they told us that they released data packages to various companies containing detailed data from the 009 results with the expectation that they could negotiate a deal with an interested party. No reason to believe that those NDAs are not still in place. None of those NDAs resulted in a deal. We have nothing whatsoever to tell us there are any new NDAs than those that previously existed nor a single piece of verifiable information which tells us any of these delays are anything more than BIT being a small fish in a large industry and not getting prioritization by service providers exactly as happened in 2017/18. This last comment is largely what BIT has been hinting at recently.

Now I can't tell you 100% that the Easter bunny isn't real, which is the one true god, or whether aliens helped build Atlantis. Simply put I'm never going to be able to prove that some theories aren't true, just as I cannot and will not tell you 100% that BIT isn't secretly conspiring with BP to do a deal and only release it on MMs birthday. Maybe that will turn out to be true. I can't say 100% that its not possible. All I can say is that this isn't where the evidence currently points.

What I can tell you Caspex with 100% certainty if that in my 15 or so years of experience with Biotron I have heard many stories about secret deals, congo lines of BP representatives seeking to make takeover bids, cures to diseases for which there is no test, clandestine operations by foreign governments to stockpile BIT in case of WW3 etc and of these exactly 0% came true.

All of the above said, one reason that I'm invested here is because I believe that there is a good profit to be made just like you. Nothing is certain but yes its possible to be realistic about all of the above and still have a strong belief that your money isn't entirely a donation to the MM retirement fund. Being realistic was why I sold during the excitement of 2018 and why I was able to buy back in 90% cheaper 5 years later. Its not magic, its just knowledge and being realistic.

I want the dream to come true just like you and most other here. I would like nothing more than a trillion dollar deal, a $300 SP dollar party on the moon in SpaceX capsules sponsored by Biotron. Its not that I can't dream big. Its just that I'm expecting to get something good but not nearly as good as some here constantly express. I'm not expecting NVidia shareholders to go "wow, wish we were invested in BIT instead !". I'm not expecting BITs market cap to exceed our national debt. I'm not expecting the fairytale. I'm reasonably confident that results will spark some significant upward movement in the share price whenever they finally arrive. Its that simple. No princesses, no castles, no short dragons trying to steal our shares. Just great results = big jump in the SP.

If they do what you expect then I'm even happier with my holding but I won't be disappointed if they don't. There is many thousands of posts in these threads of people who expected something unrealistic then get deeply disappointed only to jump on the next unrealistic expectation. This is a ride, not a destination.

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Sounds great, $300 a share might be the lower end price if the come out with complete cure for covid/long and everything in between…..

How long is not long now?

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Last 1.9¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $17.14M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
1.9¢	1.9¢	1.9¢	$4.225K	222.3K

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