Hello EPM folks, thought I might try to get some reality into some of these conversations.
EPM will probably be required to send Cerium lots of folding stuff as follows:
- JORC - this could be late 2022 but more likely 2023. They have to drill the lights out of the place so will need funds for that. Maybe a mill or so, hard place to get rigs/personnel easily. There goes $1m to Cerium
- First scoping study - depends on how they define this but this would probably be the basis for the Environmental Impact Statement to be approved by government. Let's think 2025-2027 on this one just going on how slow the approval processes are in Greenland. EIA is likely to cost possibly $4-5m which includes all necessary consultant reports plus a bucketful of drilling say $3m plus needing to set up offices/presence in Greenland - another mill or so. There goes another $3m to Cerium.
- Pre-feasibility study - this is effectively the first investment decision point. Would have to wait for EIA approval and require some more work on the tenement - say a few more mill. Think 2030. That's $7m to Cerium.
- Definitive feasibility/mining licence - 2032 at the earliest because there are a lot of government approvals to go through to get the licence and will take another $2-3 m to get there. This is the biggie - $9m to Cerium.
- Mine development - post 2033 and no cost on this but they will have to rehabilitate the old cyrolite mine as well. Maybe $200-300m. Development probably 18 months as winter stops all activity. So, think production 2035.
So, in summary, to get to a mining licence, it will cost the company $20m to Cerium and another (say) $15-20m possibly more to get the licence. Might be out by 100% on exploration/development costs as this program extends over 10 years and then a truckload of cash to get it out of the ground. If they have any environmental problems/issues, and surely they will, maybe double the funds needed and push out program (al la GGG).
Now lots of you might criticise this program but I have yet to see anyone that has made the link between these payments and progress on the mining licence (haven't seen any actual estimate on costs either but could be wrong on this). So, we have potentially $35-40m spend to a licence that will issue probably in 2033 - maybe wrong, maybe right. But probably this and maybe going north by a long way.
Anyway, this will require continual tapping of shareholders to get these funds. Just sayin ........ Ur assets might help. And, BTW, they have other tenements in Australia which will need funding.
And anyone who thinks that the above represents "near term production" is living in la la land. There is no way the government will allow the company to do any mining before all the above occurs.
For those that are still scratching their heads about Cerium, it is surely a Tanbreez/GBB company, no ? We know GBB had the ML before and suddenly this company is created AND can nominate a Board member. I don't think a coupla lads from Afghanistan are going to be in that race. GBB denies it but we know he is a fraud that has a dark past and a few court cases following him over time. Charlatan.
I love the story before anyone starts on the downramping crud. Just want to get some reality into the conversation without mugs suggesting this is just around the corner. Happy to be challenged on any of this interpretation.
DYOR
Cheers
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